Hao Nan

Opinion | China’s ICBM test may well redraw the global security landscape

More than a show of tech strength, it represents a shift in nuclear strategy and alliance stability that could redefine global security

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Hao Nan

Published: 9:30am, 16 Oct 2024

China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test last month made waves in global security circles, marking a milestone in the country’s military modernisation and revealing critical dynamics in US-led alliances in the Asia-Pacific.

While analysis has focused on the technological strides China showed, the test exposes a series of under-reported challenges, particularly around alliance dynamics, nuclear diplomacy and the shifting power balance in global arms control.

By examining these broader implications, one can see that this missile test is more than a technological show of strength; it represents a pivotal shift in nuclear strategy and alliance stability that could redefine security in the region and beyond.

China’s decision to inform the United States of the test, but not all of Washington’s regional allies, has exposed the asymmetrical information-sharing within the US alliance structure. Key US partners Japan and Taiwan were left woefully uninformed, highlighting their dependence on Washington.

Japan’s record defence budget of 7.95 trillion yen (US$53.15 billion) for the current financial year illustrates its growing concerns; it lacks an independent missile defence system to address threats like the advanced DF-31AG missile with its multi-warhead capabilities, which experts have concluded was launched in China’s ICBM test.

Taiwan, meanwhile, detected the missile’s launch but most likely lost it when it exited the island’s radar range, underscoring Taiwan’s limitations in strategic autonomy. The reliance of both Japan and Taiwan on the US complicates their defence planning, raising questions about their security resilience.