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Seong Hyeon Choi

Almost a decade has passed since the People’s Liberation Army pulled the trigger on President Xi Jinping’s plans for a massive overhaul of the world’s biggest military. In the first of a series on Chinese weapon systems, Seong Hyeon Choi looks at the sharp end of the country’s missile programme.
When China conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test outside its airspace for the first time in 44 years last month, international attention zeroed in on advances in the country’s rocketry programme.
The missile used in the test is thought to have been a DF-31AG, a variant of a third-generation weapon that went into service about two decades ago.
But the People’s Liberation Army has developed an even more advanced kind of ICBM, the fourth-generation DF-41, which can go further and carry more warheads.


The DF-41’s origins
The DF-41 was launched in 2017 as part of the Dongfeng missile series – a family of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.
The name Dongfeng, meaning “east wind”, comes from Mao Zedong’s speech in 1957 after the Soviet Union transferred its R-2 ballistic missile to help China develop its programme. “There are now two winds in the world: the east wind and the west wind,” Mao said.
First developed in July 1986, the prototype of the DF-41 was reportedly tested in 1994 and transferred in 2010 to the PLA’s Second Artillery Corps, the branch that oversaw conventional and nuclear missiles, until its transformation into the Rocket Force in 2016.
The DF-41 is estimated to have undergone around six to eight tests between 2012 and 2016. Its first flight test took place in 2012, but no details were disclosed.

Its second missile test in 2013 flew from the Wuzhai missile launch centre in Shaanxi province to a test target in western China. Tests since then have focused on specific technologies for the missile, such as the multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).
After decades of developments and tests, the DF-41 was first publicly unveiled during a military parade on October 1, 2019, which marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
Limited production likely began in the same year, with satellite imagery taken by the Federation of American Scientists in April and May 2019 showing 18 road-mobile launchers for the DF-41 at the missile training site near Jilantai in Inner Mongolia.
The tech specs
Following the DF-31, the DF-41 was China’s second ICBM to use solid-fuel propellant. Such weapons do not need to be fuelled immediately ahead of launch and require less logistical support, making them harder to detect and more likely to survive pre-emptive strikes than liquid-fuel weapons, which require longer preparation times.
The DF-41’s solid propellant uses a three-stage engine to reach ranges between 12,000-15,000km (7,456-9,320 miles) – capable of covering all of the US mainland – with speeds of up to Mach 25.
The MIRV technology employed by the DF-41 allows the ICBMs to carry a payload containing several warheads, each capable of hitting different targets.
While Chinese state media has claimed that the DF-41 can carry up to 10 MIRV warheads with a total weight of 2,500kg (5,512lbs), experts have estimated that the missiles could carry around three, and with additional payloads likely used for decoys and penetration aids to overcome the US ballistic missile defence system.




Three versions of the DF-41 are known to be in operation or under development: road-mobile, rail-mobile and silo-based. The road-mobile version is launched from an eight-axle transporter erector launcher, which allows the missile to cover various terrains and launch from remote areas. This enables the system to be deployed to a wider variety of concealed positions, thereby reducing its vulnerability.
China is reportedly testing the rail-mobile DF-41, which also sports location flexibility; rolling stock could be disguised as passenger trains travelling at high speeds, while using tunnels for protection from satellite detection.
Beijing is also reportedly developing a silo-based version of the DF-41. Satellite images from the federation suggested that China had begun construction of several DF-41-sized silos as early as 2018 with at least 16 under construction at its Jilantai training site as of 2021.
Satellite images from 2021 showed silo complexes similar to the Jilantai site also apparently under construction in Yumen in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, Hami in Xinjiang and Ordos in Inner Mongolia. Each site had more than 100 silos.
How the DF-41 stacks up
Compared to its three predecessor ICBMs – the DF-4, DF-5 and DF-31 – the DF-41 is the most advanced. While the DF-5 can also cover all of the US mainland with an operational range of between 13,000-16,000km, it uses liquid-fuel engines instead of solid-fuel ones.
While the DF-31 does use solid-fuel engines, its operational range is relatively shorter – 7,200-8,000km – and it can only carry a single warhead. However, its variants, the DF-31A and DF-31AG, are known to reach ranges of up to 13,200km and are equipped with MIRV, with around three to five warheads.




As of this year, Washington’s only land-based ICBM in service is the LGM-30G Minuteman III, with about 400 of the projectiles deployed in the US.
The Minuteman III was introduced in 1970 and has similar features as the DF-41, including a three-stage solid-fuel engine and an operational range of around 13,000km.
It was also the first US ICBM to be equipped with MIRVs to carry up to three warheads, although the missiles currently in operation had their MIRV fittings removed following a treaty with Russia in 1993 that banned their use on ICBMs.
Russia is reportedly developing a new RS-28 Sarmat to replace the Soviet R-36M ICBM, as one of six new strategic weapons unveiled by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018. It is believed to have the longest operational range in the world at 18,000km.
In April 2022, Moscow conducted the first launch of the Sarmat, two months after it invaded Ukraine. However, a recent test in September failed, with satellite imagery of the launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia revealing a crater about 60 metres (197 feet) across, suggesting extensive damage.
Nuclear deterrence
China has held that it “strictly follows a nuclear policy of no first use of nuclear weapons” and that its nuclear forces are designed for a counterstrike against a nuclear attack.
The phrase “strategic deterrence” was mentioned in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s work report at the 20th Communist Party congress in 2022, and again during the third plenum earlier this year.

But China is also considered to have one of the fastest growing nuclear arsenals in the world. According to a Pentagon report on China’s military and security development published in October last year, the PLA Rocket Force is “advancing its long-term modernisation plans to enhance its ‘strategic deterrence’ capabilities”, including the development of new ICBMs.
The report said China had “doubled and continues to grow the number of launchers at most ICBM units”, and estimated there were around 350 Chinese ICBMs, including the DF-31 and DF-41, in 2022.




A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in July estimated that China added 90 warheads to its stockpile last year and now has around 500 in total. It also estimated that within 10 years its number of ICBMs could surpass those of Russia and the US.
The ICBM is likely to continue playing a significant role in nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region as both China and the US seek to advance their nuclear powers.
Washington has pledged to begin replacing all of its Minuteman III missiles starting in 2029 with a new ICBM called the LGM-35 Sentinel.


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China’s rocket force

China’s PLA Rocket Force launches an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead from an undisclosed location. Photo: AFP

Satellite photos reveal suspected missile silo and DF-41 launchers. Photo: fas.org

China appears to be quickly expanding the number of ballistic missile silos under construction in a new sprawling training area in the north. Photo: fas.org

China ally Kiribati criticises Chinese ICBM test: ‘stop these acts to maintain world peace’

Kiribati’s President Taneti Maamau (left) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony in Beijing in 2020. Photo: AP 

A handout photograph shows China’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean on September 25. Photo: Chinese People’s Liberation Army News and Communication Centre / AFP

Kiribati’s President Taneti Maamau (left) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony in Beijing in January 2020. Photo: AP 

The PLA Rocket Force launches an intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday in China’s first known ICBM test in 44 years. Photo: AFP / Chinese People’s Liberation Army News and Communication Centre 

US calls for ‘regular’ missile launch notification process after China’s ICBM test

The PLA released pictures of the ICBM test on Thursday. Photo: AFP

The French Polynesian authorities say the missile landed in the ocean near the Marquesas Islands. Photo: Shutterstock

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